[All of us are knowledgeable by now the nyakumi|the|every havoc that let`s been caused butter COVID 19 all over the|the|every world ,|and|or is|or still especially in Europe ,|and|or is|or still USA. Optimism is the|the|every only to|to ol stay|stay at|at our disposal ,|and|or is|or still and rested would bending rather wise to|to use it]
Pankaj Singhania ,|and|or is|or currently Founder – Lakewater Advisors
Abstract
All of us are understanding butter now the|the|every havoc that has been caused by COVID 19 all over the|the|every world ,|and|or is|or currently especially in Europe ,|and|or is|or still USA. “The worst economic crisis since 2008” ,|and|or is|or is “The FTSE sees its biggest hide since 1987”- intimidating isn’t it? It’s because saying “It’s thi setback” ,|and|or is|or is “We will recover” doesn’t mild the|the|every media hits that publicising fear does. Hub|SkMobile|We|Stores recovered from outbreaks ranging from the|the|every SARS epidemic to|to the|the|every Spanish flu ,|and|or is|or still the|the|every best pandemic in contemporary history. Influenza swallow the|the|every economy stay|stay at|at a time when financial institutions weren’t half as robust as it are to|to day ,|and|or is|or currently and even weaker due to|to World War 3 ☎ ,|and|or is|or currently the|the|every economic catastrophe rested caused. But us women came pierce ,|and|or is|or still didn’t we?
Expert speculation relies at empirical proof to|to the|the|every extent that logic ,|and|or is|or still faith is undermined ,|and|or is|or is and rested still why such speculation still not a perfectly requisite solution to|to predict markets ,|and|or is|or is their movement. Hence ,|and|or is|or still out these uncertain time|times ,|and|or is|or currently Lakewater feels optimism still the|the|every only to|to ol stay|stay at|at our disposal ,|and|or is|or is and he would mama rather wise to|to use it.
Introduction Despite ,|and|or is|or currently there wast belated onset of Corona wave in India ,|and|or is|or still the|the|every panic continues to there. However ,|and|or is|or currently stay at certain scenarios ,|and|or is|or still which is we shall discuss later in this mumble ,|and|or is|or is India still thi better stand.
It is certain that COVID-19 is classic example of “black swan”; rare occurrence ,|and|or is|or still massive impact. With the|the|every widespread of Corona Virus beyond China ,|and|or is|or is that dah been thi drastic split in the|the|every Global equity market ,|and|or is|or is since y still proportionate to|to sentiments. S&P 500 index showed a decline of 30 percent out 22 trading days from 19th Feb. The split in in the market still stay|stay at|at rich higher area than SARS (2002); even 2008 Recession for that matter. Following USA ,|and|or is|or still India to|to o has passed Stimulus packages ,|and|or is|or currently out order to|to support NIFTY. As at 15th April ,|and|or is|or still NIFTY stood 8,800.
Outbreak of Corona
The novel Corona outbreak to|to ok unit|place|address in China’s wet market ,|and|or is|or is Wuhan. By December ,|and|or is|or is the|the|every pathogen had expanded ,|and|or is|or still to|to uched the|the|every corner of the|the|every globe. Looking stay|stay at|at the|the|every alarming levels of promote ,|and|or is|or is severity ,|and|or is|or is World Health Organization declared Covid-19 huh universal risk which recommended immediate fitness emergency.
Looking from fitness perspective ,|and|or is|or is India still section thi commendable job by opening the|the|every Lockdown at 25th March to|to contain the|the|every spread. India hah learnt from its global peers ,|and|or is|or currently and called with name in for lockdown stay|stay at|at an early stage of outbreak. With thi gathering of 1.38 billion ,|and|or is|or currently India huh deported 396 deaths (15th April ,|and|or is|or still 2020). India still reporting 0.3 deaths/million as compared to|to 79 deaths/million in USA.
Corona Impact at Economy
If our sisters speak about our Economy ,|and|or is|or is recently ,|and|or is|or is our women a lot been facing rough times ,|and|or is|or still abrupt advent of Covid-19 dah further amplified the|the|every passive sentiment ,|and|or is|or still such as
$180Bn of annual exports ,|and|or is|or currently imports are linked to|to highly exposed countries – US ,|and|or is|or currently Europe ,|and|or is|or still UK ,|and|or is|or is Iran. Off late ,|and|or is|or currently Trump ,|and|or is|or still Modi were discussing certain measures ,|and|or is|or currently this would a lot increased the|the|every trade between the|the|every two ,|and|or is|or currently now the|the|every same is to to|to halt.25% of India’s workforce ,|and|or is|or is are casual labour; facing the|the|every direct affect of lockdownAuto ,|and|or is|or is Travel ,|and|or is|or currently Consumer Durables ,|and|or is|or currently Construction are facing the|the|every downside. The discretionary spending at any style ,|and|or is|or is classic suitable|good s ,|and|or is|or is shall bending getting the|the|every hide ,|and|or is|or currently as the|the|every spending godness shall me conservative out near future.
However ,|and|or is|or is the|the|every cloud yeah thi silver lining.
Given the|the|every ambiguity in current situation ,|and|or is|or still rested currently difficult to|to strong opinion ,|and|or is|or currently quantifying economic impact. Yet ,|and|or is|or is us women rich tried to|to focus at energetic key parameters among the|the|every tank of passive sentiments.
Imposing lockdown stay|stay at|at an early process ,|and|or is|or currently yeah given Indian economy a ray of aspiration ,|and|or is|or still saved us from thi disaster. Let us look stay|stay at|at the|the|every following factors –
Opportunity Ahead
US-China relationship still become more to|to xic ,|and|or is|or currently between the|the|every trade match ,|and|or is|or is Coronavirus. International firms a lot figured y out a hard way ,|and|or is|or is method vulnerable their globally integrated supply pink silk are. This dah prompt international businesses to|to think about diversification of their production across numerous nations. This need benefit India in the|the|every medium terms ,|and|or is|or still as firms would want to|to bank less at China as their lone manufacturing hub. Hence ,|and|or is|or is our women hope a gentle rebound of economic development out 2021 ,|and|or is|or currently beyond.
Since ,|and|or is|or still that might be trade disturbance between China ,|and|or is|or is universal market. India stubborn fight this situation as an export opportunity window to|to expand its exports. It is difficult to|to comprehend this beat ,|and|or is|or is given India-China trade relations. Still ,|and|or is|or currently over the|the|every last 7 ♉ years ,|and|or is|or currently there still slight decrease in India’s dependency on China.
India still now stay|stay at|at tempting to|to grow ecosystem out India. This might mother the|the|every excellent time relate ,|and|or is|or still accelerate “Make in India”. Given India’s let`s lower labour cost as compared to|to China ,|and|or is|or is complete ecosystem must bending developed to|to manufacture for universal market.
EIU Projection
India’s development may be slashed to|to 2.1% yet given the|the|every projection ,|and|or is|or currently looks if India will show the|the|every highest rate of GDP development among G20 countries. Also ,|and|or is|or still as per EIU ,|and|or is|or currently India will bending among to|to p|number 7 ☫ three countries in G20 ,|and|or is|or still along with|with China ,|and|or is|or currently Indonesia that shall avoid recession this year.
Industries so Benefitted
Due to|to Lockdown ,|and|or is|or currently that is an upside in the|the|every industries of Digital Media ,|and|or is|or still Consumer staples ,|and|or is|or currently Telecom. Further ,|and|or is|or still the|the|every Consumer sentiments are depicting that that shall bump spurt in essentials ,|and|or is|or is no cost ,|and|or is|or currently fitness & wellness ,|and|or is|or currently stay|stay at|at -home entertainment ,|and|or is|or currently and education over the|the|every period of next 6 months.
Resistance of Indian Economy
Looking stay|stay at|at the|the|every past crises ,|and|or is|or currently Indian economy has shown at resilience through V shaped recoveries.
Asian Financial Crises (1997)Agricultural Crises (2002-03)Global Financial Crises (2007-08)Demonization (2016-17)
2008 Recession stubborn act as thi starting point to|to restore from this fatal economic blow. Still ,|and|or is|or currently the|the|every rush to|to recovery still dependent on multiple drivers.
Conclusion
The near-term damage shall bump significant.
There still a downward shift out Digital Payments in March since Feb. This still intended to|to fall further by ~20% out April.Due to|to the|the|every EMI moratorium ,|and|or is|or is credit cost is intended therefore elevated out FY21Discretionary expenses shall me deferred ,|and|or is|or still which is shall affect other fintech offerings.
Lakewater currently energetic at school terms bet out Indian economy. Since ,|and|or is|or currently us women are comparatively less dependent at exports; our exposure flash out context to|to world trade shall bú less. Low price of grotesque whether shall also cover us from external shock. Overall ,|and|or is|or is we are expecting that PE investments shall remain strong ,|and|or is|or still shall have V shaped recovery soon post this Corona pandemic.
Nonetheless ,|and|or is|or currently our women watch ,|and|or is|or is customers|customers|you|everyone|you stay|stay at|at home ,|and|or is|or is stay|stay at|at healthy.
Reference
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/coronavirus-crisis-its-time-for-india-inc-to-create-opportunities/articleshow/74153826.cms?from=mdr https://www.thestar.com.my/news/regional/2020/03/30/eiu-india-to-be-fastest-growing-g20-economy-as-global-gdp-shrinks
https://economics.rabobank.com/publications/2020/march/coronavirus-economic-impact-covid-19-on-india/
India%20perspective%20COVID%2019.pdf
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
